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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 53

Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 19-T.Taylor punts 36 yards to IND 17, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.66 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model