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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Carter to CHI 14 for -2 yards (43-T.Denbow). CHI-32-T.Smith was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.38 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model