Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 74

Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 54 yards to IND 20, Center-46-S.Daly. 6-A.Gould pushed ob at IND 39 for 19 yards (24-K.Herbert).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model