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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 6

Chicago Bears 9 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CHI-2-D.Moore has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.03 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model