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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Chicago Bears 9

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to CHI 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-D.Carter to CHI 18 for 6 yards (35-C.Lammons, 85-A.Ogletree).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.24 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model