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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 1
Chicago Bears 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7
What Actually Happened
(1:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left end to IND 13 for -12 yards (94-T.Lewis).
The Three Options
GO
+2.90 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.08 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth -0.90 EP
KICK
+1.11 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT
-0.98 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.98 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
