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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2024-09-22 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CAR
27.4%
LV
72.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.263 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • LV defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Gardner Minshew (LV): -0.006 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
LV 26
Projected margin: LV by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CAR

Shy Tuttle DT Doubtful Foot
Lonnie Johnson S Questionable Thigh
A'Shawn Robinson DE Questionable Knee
Nick Scott S Questionable Neck

LV

Divine Deablo LB Out Oblique
Decamerion Richardson CB Doubtful Hamstring
Tyree Wilson DE Questionable Knee
Maxx Crosby DE Questionable Ankle
Christian Wilkins DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 36
–
LV 22

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:20 TD CAR (10:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 30-C.Hubbard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – LV 0
  • Q1 00:33 TD LV (:33) (No Huddle) 22-A.Mattison up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – LV 6
  • Q2 09:33 TD CAR (9:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 5-Dio.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-T.Wilson]. CAR 13 – LV 7
  • Q2 00:33 TD CAR (:33) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-19-A.Thielen was injured during the play. CAR 20 – LV 7
  • Q3 10:03 FG CAR (10:03) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 24 – LV 7
  • Q3 04:50 FG CAR (4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 27 – LV 7
  • Q4 13:37 TD CAR (13:37) (Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 33 – LV 7
  • Q4 11:03 TD LV (11:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 16-J.Meyers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 33 – LV 13
  • Q4 04:50 FG CAR (4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 36 – LV 15
  • Q4 01:03 TD LV (1:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 11-T.Tucker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-S.Thompson]. CAR 36 – LV 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:03) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to CAR 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 16 for 7 yards (45-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on LV-19-D.Turner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 16.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 39%

    (5:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to LV 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 64%

    (6:56) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers (2-M.Jackson).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to LV 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-53-C.Cherelus.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 32%

    (3:39) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CAR 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:00) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to LV 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 17 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:23) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear pushed ob at CAR 32 for 16 yards (45-T.Eichenberg).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:33) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to CAR 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 24 for 10 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on LV-49-C.Snowden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 24.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 88%

    (10:03) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:17) (No Huddle) 15-G.Minshew up the middle to LV 37 for no gain (40-C.Harris).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:32) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-R.Blackshear.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to LV 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Tucker to LV 20 for 1 yard (21-N.Scott; 49-J.Rhattigan). PENALTY on LV-20-I.Pola-Mao, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LV 19.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to CAR 49 for 16 yards (2-M.Jackson).