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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:56) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Bowers (2-M.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model