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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CAR 5, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP