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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 8

Carolina Panthers 33 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP