Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to CAR 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 16 for 7 yards (45-T.Eichenberg). PENALTY on LV-19-D.Turner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model