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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to LV 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-32-L.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP