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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 15 – Carolina Panthers 36

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to CAR 49 for 16 yards (2-M.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.50 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model