Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 33 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to LV 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Tucker to LV 20 for 1 yard (21-N.Scott; 49-J.Rhattigan). PENALTY on LV-20-I.Pola-Mao, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LV 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.00 EP
69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model