4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP