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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CLE
26.6%
JAX
73.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (CLE): -0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CLE

David Njoku TE Out Ankle
Jedrick Wills T Out Knee
Jack Conklin T Questionable Knee

JAX

Darnell Savage S Out Quadricep
Caleb Johnson LB Questionable Back
Tyler Lacy DT Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 18
–
JAX 13

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:32 TD CLE (2:32) (Shotgun) 53-N.Harris and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 4-D.Watson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 09:57 FG CLE (9:57) 7-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 10 – JAX 0
  • Q2 04:47 FG JAX (4:47) 39-C.Little 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CLE 10 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:31 FG CLE (:31) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 13 – JAX 3
  • Q3 10:25 FG CLE (10:25) 7-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 16 – JAX 3
  • Q3 01:14 TD JAX (1:14) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 16 – JAX 9
  • Q4 07:34 FG JAX (7:34) 39-C.Little 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. CLE 16 – JAX 13
  • Q4 01:48 SAF CLE (1:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (91-A.Wright). CLE 18 – JAX 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to CLE 11 for 1 yard (56-Y.Abdullah).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:39) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to CLE 24 for 14 yards (51-V.Miller, 2-D.Johnson).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 49%

    (11:42) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 5-J.Winston up the middle to JAX 39 for 2 yards (5-A.Cisco).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 65%

    (9:57) 7-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (4:47) 39-C.Little 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (3:03) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 34-J.Ford left end pushed ob at JAX 27 for 36 yards (5-A.Cisco).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 91%

    (:31) 7-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to CLE 41, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to JAX 49 for 10 yards (20-D.Thomas, 48-C.Muma).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (10:25) 7-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 16 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 85%

    (5:52) 39-C.Little 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:37) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay. ** Injury Update: JAX-4-T.Bigsby has returned to the game.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to JAX 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 20 for 9 yards (31-M.Ford). PENALTY on JAX-4-T.Bigsby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at JAX 19.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (7:34) 39-C.Little 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 84%

    (3:24) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 5-J.Winston up the middle to JAX 24 for 2 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 57%

    (1:33) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 28 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.