Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 31 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay. ** Injury Update: JAX-4-T.Bigsby has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.61 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model