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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to CLE 24 for 14 yards (51-V.Miller, 2-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model