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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(14:26) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model