Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(11:57) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-J.Proche to CLE 11 for 1 yard (56-Y.Abdullah).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.69 EP
61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model