Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to JAX 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 20 for 9 yards (31-M.Ford). PENALTY on JAX-4-T.Bigsby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at JAX 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.50 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model