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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 5-J.Winston up the middle to JAX 24 for 2 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.86 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model