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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 34-J.Ford left end pushed ob at JAX 27 for 36 yards (5-A.Cisco).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.86 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model