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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 5-J.Winston up the middle to JAX 39 for 2 yards (5-A.Cisco).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model