4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CAR
20.9%
NO
79.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.285 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 17
–
NO 26
Projected margin: NO by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CAR

Ian Thomas TE Out Calf
Tommy Tremble TE Out Hamstring
Yosuah Nijman T Questionable Tibia

NO

Jaylan Ford LB Out Hamstring
Dallin Holker TE Out Ankle
D'Marco Jackson LB Out Calf
Khalen Saunders DT Out Calf
A.T. Perry WR Questionable Hand
Willie Gay LB Questionable Back
Nick Saldiveri G Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
NO 47

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:16 TD NO (12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 10:09 FG NO (10:09) 19-B.Grupe 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. CAR 0 – NO 10
  • Q1 01:32 TD NO (1:32) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – NO 16
  • Q2 07:08 FG NO (7:08) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. CAR 0 – NO 20
  • Q2 02:12 FG NO (2:12) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. CAR 0 – NO 23
  • Q2 01:24 TD NO (1:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-J.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – NO 29
  • Q2 00:03 FG CAR (:03) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – NO 30
  • Q3 08:30 TD NO (8:30) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – NO 36
  • Q3 05:00 TD CAR (5:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to NO 1 for 2 yards (29-P.Adebo). FUMBLES (29-P.Adebo), recovered by CAR-15-J.Mingo at NO 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – NO 37
  • Q4 13:12 FG NO (13:12) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. CAR 10 – NO 40
  • Q4 10:43 TD NO (10:43) 21-Ja.Williams left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – NO 46

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 64%

    (10:09) 19-B.Grupe 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 21 for 8 yards (53-C.Cherelus).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:19) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 26 for 5 yards (83-D.Moore).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 87%

    (7:08) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 75%

    (2:12) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to NO 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-R.Shaheed to CAR 16 for 47 yards (84-F.Franks).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 99%

    (5:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to NO 1 for 2 yards (29-P.Adebo). FUMBLES (29-P.Adebo), recovered by CAR-15-J.Mingo at NO 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-B.Young scrambles up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (13:12) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 11 yards to CAR 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (6:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 83-D.Moore.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:37) 43-M.Hayball punts 38 yards to CAR 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray. PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 83-D.Moore (98-P.Turner).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 41%

    (2:22) 43-M.Hayball punts 35 yards to CAR 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:17) 10-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to NO 47, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at NO 46, RECOVERED by CAR-84-F.Franks at NO 45.