4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 19-B.Grupe 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.20 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model