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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 47 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 43-M.Hayball punts 38 yards to CAR 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray. PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.01 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP