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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 17 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 19-B.Grupe 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.50 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP