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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 47

What Actually Happened

(6:55) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP