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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 37 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 19-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model