Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 47

(1:17) 10-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to NO 47, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-C.Wilson MUFFS catch, touched at NO 46, RECOVERED by CAR-84-F.Franks at NO 45.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.48 EP
52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model