Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 40

(11:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 11 yards to CAR 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-44-J.Jansen.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model