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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 47

What Actually Happened

(4:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 83-D.Moore (98-P.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.52 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model