Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.222 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- SF offense: +0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- SF on 7 more days rest than GB
- SF defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.271 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.264 EPA/dropback (SF starting Brock Purdy in place of Sam Darnold)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 20
GB
No players on the report.
SF
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:26 FG GB (7:26) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – SF 0
- Q2 08:48 TD SF (8:48) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 3 – SF 6
- Q2 04:13 FG GB (4:13) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 6 – SF 7
- Q3 09:33 TD GB (9:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 80-B.Melton for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 12 – SF 7
- Q3 07:47 TD SF (7:47) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – SF 13
- Q3 05:26 TD GB (5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – SF 14
- Q4 15:00 FG SF (15:00) 4-J.Moody 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. GB 21 – SF 17
- Q4 01:11 TD SF (1:11) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 21 – SF 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%
(7:26) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
-
Q1 SF 4th & 13 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:20) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to GB 6, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-J.Reed ran ob at GB 18 for 12 yards (28-D.Luter).
-
Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 95%
(14:40) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love up the middle to SF 14 for no gain (57-D.Greenlaw; 91-A.Armstead).
-
Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(4:13) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
-
Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 78%
(:10) 4-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Wooden), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
-
Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 55%
(13:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to GB 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.
-
Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53%
(3:54) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 48 yards to GB 34, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 38 for 4 yards (53-D.Winters).
-
Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 70%
(15:00) 4-J.Moody 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 65%
(13:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to SF 25, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
-
Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 54%
(9:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 30 yards to GB 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 88%
(6:21) 17-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.