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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-J.Moody 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.38 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model