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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 30 yards to GB 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP