4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to GB 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP