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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 21 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 17-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model