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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 21 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 42 yards to SF 25, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP