Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

(4:20) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 57 yards to GB 6, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-J.Reed ran ob at GB 18 for 12 yards (28-D.Luter).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model