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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:40) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love up the middle to SF 14 for no gain (57-D.Greenlaw; 91-A.Armstead).

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model