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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-J.Moody 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Wooden), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.58 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model