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TB Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Chris Tabor
Sunday 2024-01-07 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 💨 Windy Spread -5.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

TB
66.3%
CAR
33.7%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.259 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: +0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
CAR 17
Projected margin: TB by 6 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

TB

Mike Greene DT Out Calf
Cam Gill LB Questionable Knee
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Concussion
Rakim Jarrett WR Questionable Quadricep
Ko Kieft TE Questionable Shoulder
Baker Mayfield QB Questionable Ribs
K.J. Britt LB Questionable Calf
Trey Palmer WR Questionable Hip

CAR

Marquis Haynes LB Out Concussion
Eddy Pineiro K Doubtful right Hamstring
Cade Mays G Doubtful Finger
Tae Davis LB Questionable Illness
Jaycee Horn CB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 9
–
CAR 0

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 04:17 FG TB (4:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – CAR 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG TB (:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 6 – CAR 0
  • Q4 10:22 FG TB (10:22) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 9 – CAR 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 27%

    (11:49) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CAR 11, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 25 for 14 yards (51-J.Russell).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:57) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to TB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:50) 5-J.Camarda punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to TB 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to CAR 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-19-D.Moore.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:58) 5-J.Camarda punts 60 yards to CAR 13, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 21 for 8 yards (19-D.Moore; 32-J.Hayes).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to TB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 92%

    (4:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:20) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:01) 5-J.Camarda punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to TB 44, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-J.Chinn.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 48%

    (:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 19%

    (9:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-D.Jamison.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:08) 5-J.Camarda punts 59 yards to CAR 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 46 for 29 yards (8-S.Dennis).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 51%

    (2:23) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen to TB 30 for 8 yards (29-C.Izien). TB-94-C.Kancey was injured during the play. TB-54-L.David was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 14 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 63%

    (:04) 16-M.Wright 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (10:22) 4-C.McLaughlin 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (8:20) 30-C.Hubbard right tackle to CAR 48 for 2 yards (24-C.Davis; 54-L.David).