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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to CAR 30, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-19-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.44 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model