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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.74 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP