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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to TB 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.58 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model