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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model