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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CAR 11, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 25 for 14 yards (51-J.Russell).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.20 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model