Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(2:41) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to TB 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.61 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model