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Green Bay Packers

8-8 HC Matt LaFleur
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Minnesota Vikings

7-9 HC Kevin O'Connell
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 20:20 ET U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

GB
77.1%
MIN
22.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Jaren Hall (MIN): -1.153 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIN starting Jaren Hall in place of Nick Mullens)
  • GB offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 25 18–32
–
MIN 17 10–24
Projected margin: GB by 8 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

GB

Eric Stokes CB Out Hamstring
De'Vondre Campbell LB Doubtful Neck
Christian Watson WR Doubtful Hamstring
Luke Tenuta T Doubtful Ankle
Emanuel Wilson RB Doubtful Shoulder
Luke Musgrave TE Doubtful kidney
Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Chest
Robert Rochell CB Questionable Neck
Darnell Savage S Questionable Shoulder
Tedarrell Slaton DT Questionable Knee

MIN

Theo Jackson S Out Toe
Byron Murphy CB Out Knee
Jalen Nailor WR Out Concussion
Jaquelin Roy DT Out Ankle
Jordan Addison WR Questionable Ankle
Mekhi Blackmon CB Questionable Shoulder
Troy Dye LB Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 33
–
MIN 10

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:47 FG GB (6:47) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 05:15 TD GB (5:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 11-J.Reed for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 9 – MIN 0
  • Q2 09:30 FG MIN (9:30) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. GB 10 – MIN 3
  • Q2 04:02 TD GB (4:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – MIN 3
  • Q2 00:17 TD GB (:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 11-J.Reed for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – MIN 3
  • Q3 00:54 TD GB (:54) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 80-B.Melton for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 29 – MIN 3
  • Q4 14:10 TD MIN (14:10) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass short left to 86-J.Mundt for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-P.Smith]. GB 30 – MIN 9
  • Q4 06:15 FG GB (6:15) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 33 – MIN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:08) 19-D.Whelan punts 54 yards to MIN 23, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 23 for no gain (22-R.Rochell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:44) 14-R.Wright punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (6:47) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:34) 14-R.Wright punts 30 yards to GB 26, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (13:24) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 80-B.Melton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 70%

    (9:30) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:54) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to GB 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIN 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 38 for 4 yards (20-R.Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson [7-Q.Walker].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to GB 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-S.Toure MUFFS catch, touched at GB 20, RECOVERED by MIN-11-N.Thompson at GB 7.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (6:15) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (3:03) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass incomplete short right to 4-B.Powell (25-K.Nixon) [52-R.Gary].

    See the full breakdown →